Extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, and flooding are expected to change drastically in the future as the climate system changes. While many of these changes are well established and mechanisms behind them are understood, large uncertainties still remain. Even more impactful are potential tipping points in the climate system, such as the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The rareness of these extreme and tipping events makes both statistical inference and modelling very challenging. The observational record is often too short compared to return times of interest and many of the events require high resolution models to fully resolve them, making simulation very costly. It is therefore essential to make the most efficient use of both data and models to reduce uncertainties.
The aim of this meeting is to create a common ground so that researchers from different fields can exchange recent progress in mathematical research that can be aligned with climate science applications or vice versa. Topics for the meeting include, but are not limited to, mathematical developments in extreme value theory, rare event simulation and related Monte Carlo methods, dynamical systems theory, stochastic analysis and large deviation theory. The aim is to link these developments to climate science and related applications. We are therefore inviting climate scientist with an interest in extreme and rare events, such as heat waves, droughts, flooding, and tipping elements.
This interdisciplinary event is funded by the Centre for Mathematics of Planet Earth.
Organizers
Venue
Slingo lecture theatre, JJ Thompson Building
Whiteknights campus, University of Reading (campus map, pdf)
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Travel information
From Reading station, you may take the Bus 21 to the "Pepper Lane University" stop, and then walk for approx. 3 min to the JJT building. A taxi rank can also be found near the train station.
Confirmed speakers
- Ignacio Del Amo Blanco
- Richard Everitt
- Tobias Grafke
- Frank Kwasniok
- Nicholas Leach
- Valerio Lucarini
- Claudia Neves
- Marilena Oltmanns
- Christian Rohrbeck
- Joran Rolland
- Ted Shepherd
Schedule
| 09:00 - 09:30 | Registration | |
| 09:30 - 10:00 | Richard Everitt (Warwick) | abstract |
| 10:00 - 10:30 | Joran Rolland (Ecole Centrale de Lille, remotely) | abstract |
| 10:30 - 11:00 | Coffee break | |
| 11:00 - 11:30 | Claudia Neves (King's College London) | abstract |
| 11:30 - 12:00 | Ignacio Del Amo Blanco (Exeter, remotely) | abstract |
| 12:00 - 12:30 | Christian Rohrbeck (Bath) | abstract |
| 12:30 - 13:30 | Lunch at Eat at the Square | |
| 13:30 - 14:00 | Marilena Oltmanns (NOC, remotely) | abstract |
| 14:00 - 14:30 | Tobias Grafke (Warwick) | abstract |
| 14:30 - 15:00 | Valerio Lucarini (Leicester, remotely) | |
| 15:00 - 15:30 | Coffee break | |
| 15:30 - 16:00 | Frank Kwasniok (Exeter, remotely) | abstract |
| 16:00 - 16:30 | Ted Shepherd (Reading) | abstract |
| 16:30 - 17:00 | Nicholas Leach (Oxford) | abstract |